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Modeling

Data modelling starts with uncovering patterns in existing data, which are then used to predict/forecast future variations in the parameters of interest. It is critical that confidence (variability) of predictions is quantitatively assessed. The complexity of the modelling exercise increases quickly with the number of variables and quantity of data used; ICT-based geospatial and statistical modelling tools are irreplaceable for such computationally-intensive efforts. Forecasts for hydro-meteorological indicators are a good example of critical modelling applications in water management.

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ArcSWAT Application in Basin-Scale Water Security Assessments: Azov Sea Case Study

Problem Description / Relevance to Water Security: 

The current study investigates the change of water supply in the Azov Basin, in particular in the Tsimlyansk reservoir under different land use and climate change scenarios by 2050.

ICT Application / Outcome: 

Spatially-explicit scenarios of climate and land cover changes using datasets of the EnviroGRIDs project were used for assessing water security threats using the SWAT model.

Scenarios were built based on outputs of the Metronamica model, which allows assessing spatial development in the land use depending on external factors and policy measures (RIKS 2005).  The scenarios were based on the storylines proposed by IPCC-SRES (Nakicenovic et al. 2000) corresponding to the different ways of global socio-economic development.

Assessment of Groundwater Contamination Risk from Landfill Site Using HELP and SESOIL Models: A Case Study from Jordan

Problem Description / Relevance to Water Security: 

Leachate is the liquid generated in landfills as a result of dumping the solid waste. It consists of the juice resulting from the moisture contained in the solid waste plus the rainwater that penetrates through the solid waste matrix. Al-Akeeder landfill is unsanitary landfill that does not contain leachate control and management system. Therefore, there is a chance that leachate which has a high contamination potential can reach to both surface and groundwater bodies and rendering them contaminated.

ICT Application / Outcome: 

The primary goal of the study is to estimate the leachate quantity generated from Al Akeeder landfill, to study the transport of nitrate from leachate to the subsurface soil layers and to assess the risk associated with Al Akeeder landfill leachate to the groundwater at the site. Figure 1 outlines the procedures followed to perform these tasks.

Environmental Management Plan for the Lake Uromiyeh Ecosystem, Iran

Problem Description / Relevance to Water Security: 

Lake Uromiyeh is shallow (6-8 m deep) and has no outflow, so all the precipitation falling in the basin evaporates either from the land or from the lake itself. The evaporating water leaves the dissolved salts behind. The actual salinity depends on the amount of water in the lake, i.e. the lake level. These circumstances led to the development of a relatively simple ecology, populated by salt-loving organisms at each level of the food chain.

ICT Application / Outcome: 

The principles of integrated water management were applied. The key tool in it was a decision support system (DSS) that combined data from all related fields.

The advantage of using a DSS in integrated water resources management is that it provides the possibility of testing outcomes of different water allocation schemes, i.e. of different scenarios.

The DSS for Lake Uromiyeh incorporated several software tools, comprising four major logical units (Figure 2).

Geo-Spatial Data Modeling to Estimate Flood Affected Population in a Near Real-Time Scenario: Pakistan Floods 2011

Problem Description / Relevance to Water Security: 

During humanitarian emergencies, Well-timed information on losses, affected areas and affected population is essential to plan any effective response and optimum resource allocation that are in hand. However, this is, conventionally, only available following an on-ground assessment.

ICT Application / Outcome: 

A spatial model was developed for the assessment of the flood-affected population in a near real-time scenario using spatial analysis. A flood extent vector, extracted from MODIS daily images, was superimposed on a LandScan population grid to estimate the population count living in the flooded area, aggregated by their respective administrative level.

Modeling and Visualization of Water Use in an Arid Region: Case Study from El Paso, Texas-Ciudad Juarez, Mexico

Problem Description / Relevance to Water Security: 

This case study took place in the Rio Grande valley which is the fastest growing region in the United States. Water in the southwest can act as a break on the economic development of this region.

ICT Application / Outcome: 

The model was structured into three main sections of hierarchical blocks: population, water demand and water supply (Figure 2).  From these sections, the Hueco Bolson storage level was determined.  Three plotters were then used to plot demand, population and Hueco Bolson Storage levels.