Effective Communication of Flood Risk Information for Improved Decision Making in Rakhine State, Myanmar

In Rakhine State, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), with technical partnership of the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) and the Myanmar Engineering Society (MES), initiated an activity in 2011 to assess and map the risk from possible disasters in Rakhine State including flood, earthquake, tsunami, cyclone, storm surge, landslide and forest fire. While the other types of hazards are impactful for the state, this study focuses on floods. Flood hazard maps were developed based on simulations of flood depth for the 5 most flood prone river basins, in accordance with the past history of flooding. The estimated flood hazard maps indicated areas where flooding can be expected and the flood water depth wherever inundation occurs. To make the calculation, detailed hydrological, meteorological, demographic, and geomorphological data were required. Any flood mapping study starts from understanding the elevation and terrain of the river basins and surrounding areas. In this case, the publicly available Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer’s (ASTER) digital elevation model was used. Exact locations of the rivers in Rakhine State were traced from earth-observing satellite images and converted into a Geographic Information System (GIS) map layer. Analyzing digital terrain data, computer software transformed the drainage paths and watershed boundaries into a hydrologic data structure that represents the drainage network. This process allowed users to visualize spatial information, document watershed characteristics, perform spatial analysis and delineate sub-basins and streams. With the base information, the extent of floods was estimated from the rainfall data for the period from 2001 to 2010 at 10 gauging stations within Rakhine State that was collected from the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (DMH).

The resulting flood hazard maps of Rakhine State indicate areas where future floods can be expected. Information on the possible flood depth is also provided on the maps, which is useful for the state and national authorities to make informed decisions on flood risk mitigation activities. Examples of the applications of these maps are planning for fund and human resources allocation, for setting up early warning system, for emergency response planning, for structural and non-structural mitigation of floods, and for future development projects. The remaining discussion will focus on the use of the flood risk maps and subsequent development of a web-portal to locate areas for early warning system pilot activities.

Following completion of the assessment, the information was then compiled into a “geospatial web-portal” managed by the Relief and Resettlement Department (RRD) of Myanmar. One role of the web portal is to share risk information developed at a national and state level in the country, including information from the DRA in Rakhine State. Once technical data relating to flood risk was developed into a GIS database, one of the most challenging tasks is to translate the data to non-technical stakeholders including decision makers, community groups and the private sector. Each of these groups can utilize the data to reduce their risk towards floods, storms and landslides if presented in an easy to understand and accessible format. In order to achieve this and reach the largest number of both technical and non-technical stakeholders, ADPC, through collaboration with the New Zealand Aid Programme (NZ Aid) began development of a web portal for easy dissemination of risk information for Myanmar in August of 2014. The portal has been developed using a structured spatial database, which can be expandable in all dimensions of data volume, types of hazards, sectors, and geographic areas etc. Users can access the risk information, customize them for specific applications, and generate maps and reports on interactive environment. The portal provides access to a hazard profile throughout the country; interactive web mapping and retrieval of spatially referenced risk information as a GIS repository; presentation of charts, graphs and statements; access to map products, reports and documents; along with risk assessment project information.

Building upon both the technical risk assessment and the web portal, ADPC has begun to develop further activities and translate this technical data to be used by at risk communities. One such activity being the development of Early Warning Systems aimed to strengthen the capacity of local communities to effectively respond to hazard events like tsunamis/cyclones, landslides and floods. Ensuring that flood early warning systems are in place within local communities is an invaluable component of any DRR and flood mitigation program as the capacity and knowledge utilized by community members can be facilitated in a much faster way than structural mitigation techniques such as dikes, dams and seawalls, all of which can require years for financing, planning, implementation and maintenance.

ADPC utilized several different inputs for an analysis aimed to identify sites for pilot activities of hazard prone communities in Rakhine State; notably the state level risk assessments conducted by UNDP, ADPC and the Myanmar Engineering Society, along with information from the rapid post disaster assessment of the flood and landslide events of July and August 2015 triggered by Cyclone Komen. For the purposes of the analysis, the most up to date report at the time of planning was Situation Report 2, released on 17 August 2015, as put out by the National Natural Disaster Management Committee in Myanmar. Using this methodology, specific village tracts in five townships (Maungdaw, Minbya, Myebon, Pauktaw and Sittwe) were identified as the areas to conduct pilot activities relating to strengthening early warning systems based on their need and location in risk prone areas.

Currently, there is limited flood monitoring through use of hydro-graphs in Rakhine and neighboring Chin state in Myanmar; a condition that drastically increases the overall vulnerability of the area in terms of information dissemination and communication during hazard events.  Therefore, the Early Warning Systems in Rakhine state will aim to provide vulnerable communities a means to develop a low-resource means of translating information to vulnerable groups that is interconnected with the overall national EWS in the country. Other community-level early warning systems developed by ADPC in Myanmar have required testing of rapid notification, dissemination and responsible elements by adopting two phases of the exercise: a) simulation and b) drills. Simulations typically begin the Department of Meteorology (DMH) issuing a gradual warning with elevated warnings escalating throughout the drill, each with associated colors (yellow, orange and red) and then rapidly notifying warning information to the Relief and Resettlement Department (RRD), General Administrative Department (GAD), Media and other stakeholders. The messages transition from:

NATIONAL > STATE > TOWNSHIP > VILLAGE TRACT

At the most local level (village tract) evacuation is ordered by the Village Tract Disaster Management Centers (VTDMCs) with a red color message and a specific public notification process. Practitioners took a lead in public outreach and dissemination by using megaphones (at cluster level), loud speakers and other modes of communication and made use of pre-developed evacuation maps, route plans, safe site plans and provisions to shelter local people to safer locations. See Figure 3.

Methods for implementing early warning systems is something that has been well tested as an effective measure of reducing risk to vulnerable communities during times of floods and related hydro-meteorological hazards. One of the primary challenges however remains the ability to accurately locate appropriate communities to implement early warning training and other capacity building activities. As risk assessments conducted at the state and national levels remains a highly technical procedure, actors who conduct the risk assessments are often not associated with the decisions made from the final assessment. Therein lies the need to continue to develop improved ways of communicating risk information to ensure the best decisions for future project activities aimed for the greatest impact. The recent flood and storm events that impacted Rakhine State in July and August of 2015 provide clear indication that more work needs to be done in terms of empowering communities to develop early warning systems and translating risk information through web portals remains a proven way of accomplishing this.